Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018
SPOTTY SHOWERS TURNING TO HEAVY RAIN
Spotty showers will continue through the day today, but they won't drop much when it comes to rainfall accumulation. Already, this moisture is associated with Hurricane Willa, which is set to make landfall along the west coast of Mexico later today. Willa's path will take the tropical cyclone through the mountain of Mexico where it will weaken significantly before reaching south Texas. While the main center of energy will stay to our south, rainfall associated with Willa will push into central Texas Wednesday.
Activity will start off isolated Wednesday morning then become widespread across the area by Wednesday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible at times, so we will be on the lookout for some minor flooding, especially along our already very swollen rivers and lakes. Rainfall totals do look slightly lower, but even the 1-2" I'm expecting could be enough to re-ignite some flood issues.
Remember, Turn Around Don’t Drown.
Road Closures: http://bit.ly/atxfloods
River Flooding: http://bit.ly/riverfloodatx
LCRA Flood Ops: http://bit.ly/lcra_lakelevels
Rain Reports: http://bit.ly/hydromet
EXTENDED DRY STRETCH
While a few showers could linger into Thursday morning, conditions should clear out quickly through the end of the week! By Friday, we'll be sunny with high temperatures in the mid 70s. A beautiful weekend is ahead with temperatures in the low 80s, much closer to where they should be for this time of year. We'll stay dry through the beginning of next week, but a few showers could return by Halloween evening (don't worry yet, at this point it doesn't look to completely ruin your plans!).
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-The next named storms will be Oscar and Patty.
The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-As mentioned, Willa is expected to make landfall in Mexico and send remnant tropical moisture into Texas – affecting us most on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
-Vicente is expected to track northwestward toward the Baja California area
-Another disturbance has a 10% chance of development in the next 2 days, 10% in the next 5.
-The next named storm in the Pacific will be Willa.
Track the tropics here:
AIR QUALITY FORECAST
Tuesday’s Air Quality: CODE GREEN - GOOD. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229
EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES
NOAA continued an El Nino Watch on September 13th with the chance for El Niño at 50-55% during fall, and 65-70% during winter 2018-19.
For Central Texas, El Nino winters are typically colder and wetter than normal. Stay tuned!
The shorter-term Climate Prediction Center outlook for Oct 28- Nov 1 is below normal for temps and below normal for precip. For Oct 30 - Nov 5, it’s near normal for temps and above normal for precip. For Nov 3 – Nov 16, it’s near normal for temps and near normal for precip.
Wildfire danger remains low thanks to our recent rain!
Burn bans have been lifted for all counties in the CBS Austin area.
Statewide Burn Bans: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd
We are drought free as of last week’s drought monitor. The next Drought Monitor will be released Thursday, October 25th and we should remain drought-free. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX\
Mold 5621 – high. Fall Elm 49 – low. Ragweed 29 – low. Trace Grass and Marsh Elder. Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma & Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen and here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.
After peaking Saturday morning at 704.39 ft (5th highest all-time), Lake Travis had fallen to 703.01 by Monday evening, expected to fall to between 703 and 701. 100% “Full” is 681, so flooding and high water could linger for days. After peaking at 1019.2, Lake Buchanan had fallen to 1018.48, expected to fall to near 1018. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
The UV Index for Tuesday will be 1 (low). Unprotected skin could burn in 45 minutes. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
STORM TRACKER FORECAST
TUE: 64 | Rainy morning. Cloudy & cool with only a few spotty afternoon showers | Rain Chance: 40% | Winds: N/NE 0-10
WED: 58 | Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy, especially PM | Rain Chance: 100% | Winds: NE 0-10 | Morning Low: 54
THU: 66 | Decreasing clouds, any rain ends pre-dawn | Winds: NW 0-5 | Morning Low: 52
FRI: 75 | Sunny and nice! | Winds: NW/N 0-10 | Morning Low: 55
SAT: 81 | Cool morning, sunny and warm afternoon | Winds: W/SW 0-10 | Morning Low: 59
SUN: 82 | Mostly sunny | Winds: SW/S 0-10 | Morning Low: 60
MON: 76 | Mostly sunny | Winds: S 0-5 | Morning Low: 58
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Today's Record Temperatures