Friday, July 20th, 2018
DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
A heat wave is well underway in central Texas, and the heat isn't going anywhere anytime soon. High pressure has moved in out of the west, and will stay stationed over the state of Texas for the next few days. High temperatures will continue to climb here in Austin: 104 Friday… 105 on Sunday... 106 on Sunday... and 107 Monday. These high temperatures will likely tie or break our current high temperature records. The record high temp each afternoon through Monday at Camp Mabry is 104 degrees.
Excessive Heat Warnings for highs 103-107+ cover Llano, Burnet, Williamson, Travis and Milam Counties (2pm to 8pm). Heat Advisories for highs 102-104 cover Mason, Gillespie, Blanco, Hays, Caldwell, Bastrop, Lee and Fayette Counties until 8pm Friday. These heat advisories and warnings will likely be continued and expanded with heat climbing this weekend and peaking early next week. Worth noting: while heat will be extreme, humidity will be manageable, one small silver lining.
For the Record: We’ve seen 68 days of 90+ heat to date at Camp Mabry. Average from 1897-present is 110 per year, but the 30-year average from 1988-2017 is much higher: 122. The most in a year? 164 in 2011. The lowest was 98 back in 1997.
We’ve seen 17 days of triple digit heat to date at Camp Mabry. The 30-year average for triple digit temps is 25 in a year. The record is 90 days of 100s in 2011.
SLIM RAIN CHANCE
There’s a small chance that a weak front may try to sag close enough to Central Texas to briefly shift winds to the northeast or east and possibly fire a stray shower or two late Tuesday or early Wednesday. I’ve added a 10% chance of rain to accommodate for that. Unfortunately, I don’t expect that rain chance or the weak front to bring much in the way of heat relief. For now, I’m knocking temps down a couple degrees but keeping the triple digit streak in place for the next 7 days.
AIR QUALITY FORECAST
Friday’s Air Quality: MODERATE. Continued Moderate Air Quality through the next several days with African Dust bringing in more particle pollution than normal. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-No storms are expected to develop in the next 5 days
-The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Debby.
The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-Disturbance 1: Development Chance Next 2 Days: 30% | Next 5: 50%
-Disturbance 2: Development Chance Next 2 Days: 10% | Next 5: 40%
-Disturbance 3: Development Chance Next 2 Days: 0% | Next 5: 30%
-The next named storms in the Pacific will be called Gilma, Hector and Ileana.
EL NINO WATCH ISSUED
NOAA issued an El Nino Watch on June 14th with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19.
For Central Texas, El Nino winters are typically colder and wetter than normal. Stay tuned!
The shorter-term Climate Prediction Center outlook for July 25-29 is above normal for temps and above normal for precip. For July 27-Aug 2, it’s above normal for temps and above normal precip. For July 28-Aug 10, the outlook is for above normal temps and below normal precip.
Wildfire danger is forecast to be MODERATE on Friday.
Travis, Caldwell, Llano, Burnet, Blanco and Gillespie Counties are under a burn ban at this time.
Statewide Burn Bans: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd
The Drought Monitor showed little change with Abnormally Dry conditions across Austin with areas of Moderate and Severe Drought mainly in the Hill Country. The next Drought Monitor will be released Thursday, July 26th. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX\
Mold 3403 - high. Grass 36 – low. Trace Pigweed. Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma & Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen and here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.
Lake Travis was at 67% full with Lake Buchanan at 84%. Friday’s combined lake level was 75%. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
The UV Index for Friday will be 11 (extreme). Unprotected skin can burn in 10 minutes. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
STORM TRACKER FORECAST
FRI: 104 | HOT WEATHER ALERT | Hazy sunshine | Winds: SW/S 5-10
SAT: 105 | HOT WEATHER ALERT | Hazy sunshine | Winds: SW/S 5-10 | Morning Low: 77
SUN: 106 | HOT WEATHER ALERT | Hazy sunshine | Winds: SW/S 5-10 | Morning Low: 78
MON: 107 | HOT WEATHER ALERT | Hazy sunshine | Winds: SW/S 5-10 | Morning Low: 79
TUE: 103 | HOT WEATHER ALERT | Partly cloudy, maybe a stray shower late | Rain Chance: 10% | Winds: S/NE 5-10 | Morning Low: 80
WED: 102 | Partly cloudy, maybe a stray shower early | Rain Chance: 10% | Winds: SE 0-5 | Morning Low: 77
THU: 103 | Mostly sunny | Winds: SE 0-5 | Morning Low: 77
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Today's Record Temperatures