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7 DAY FORECAST
HOURLY
63
Overcast
Saturday-
Rain
72
57
50%
72
57
Rain
Precipitation50%
Wind8mph N
Humidity79%
UVHigh
Sunday-
Mostly Cloudy
70
51
0%
70
51
Mostly Cloudy
Precipitation0%
Wind7mph NE
Humidity52%
UVHigh
Monday-
Rain
60
52
90%
60
52
Rain
Precipitation90%
Wind2mph NE
Humidity75%
UVModerate
Tuesday-
Cloudy
66
55
50%
66
55
Cloudy
Precipitation50%
Wind4mph NNE
Humidity75%
UVModerate
Wednesday-
Rain/Thunder
65
56
50%
65
56
Rain/Thunder
Precipitation50%
Wind5mph NNE
Humidity84%
UVModerate
Thursday-
Mostly Cloudy
70
57
10%
70
57
Mostly Cloudy
Precipitation10%
Wind4mph N
Humidity77%
UVModerate
Friday-
AM Showers
72
54
30%
72
54
AM Showers
Precipitation30%
Wind3mph NW
Humidity77%
UVHigh
RIGHT NOW
Precipitation0%
Wind2mph NNW
Humidity90%
UVLow
Visibility4 miles
63
0%
62
0%
62
0%
63
20%
65
20%
67
20%
68
20%
69
0%
71
0%
71
0%
71
0%
70
0%

Latest Weathercast

WEATHERCAST

Interactive Radar

Radar

Latest Forecast


Friday, October 19th, 2018

HISTORIC FLOODING

As of Friday evening, Lake Travis had reached the 5th highest level on record, just shy of the 4th highest. Major flooding was occurring, but the rate of rise for the lake had slowed to a crawl. Thursday, the lake went up 1 foot every 6 hours. Friday, it took 18 hours to rise 1 foot. Friday afternoon through evening, the lake only rose 0.1 feet over a 6 hour period. While conditions seem to be stabilizing with fewer open gates at dam ops upstream from Lake Travis, thus decreasing inflows to the lake. IF we avoid heavy rain, the lake is expected to remain in a range of 704 to 706 feet per the LCRA. IF heavy rain develops upstream from or over Lake Travis, then additional floodgates may be opened, though that potential has dropped. IF additional floodgates are opened, then areas downstream of Lake Travis from Lake Austin to Ladybird Lake to the Colorado River at Bastrop, Smithville and La Grange toward the Gulf could see a domino effect due to higher flows = higher flood risk.

Top 5 Crests:

(1) 710.44’ December 25th, 1991

(2) 707.38’ May 18th, 1957

(3) 705.11’ July 7th, 1997

(4) 704.68’ February 10th, 1992

(5) *At least 704.29 – October 2018

100% Full = 681 feet. Top of spillway is 714 feet, something that has never happened.

Most areas saw less than 1” of rain on Friday, and it didn’t come all at once. As even that moderate rain risk shoves north and east with a disturbance moving away from us, we’ll downtrend to just “scattered showers” and areas of drizzle through Saturday until a cold front arrives from north to south during the day. That front won’t cool us down, but it will shove the copious moisture that’s been plaguing us all week to the south and FINALLY, bring us a dry day on Sunday.

Bottom Line: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM through the weekend with generally light rain and low rain totals that should not worsen the flood situation dramatically.

Remember, Turn Around Don’t Drown.

Road Closures: http://bit.ly/atxfloods

River Flooding: http://bit.ly/riverfloodatx

LCRA Flood Ops: http://bit.ly/lcra_lakelevels

Rain Reports: http://bit.ly/hydromet

NEXT WEEK

After a break in the rain on Sunday (and perhaps even some sunshine – perfectly timed for F1), we’ll see a system quickly close in on Central Texas Monday. Right now, I’m expecting up to 1” of rain Monday, then a break Tuesday. Another system (possibly with some tropical influence from the Pacific) could bring up to 1” of rain Wednesday. Then we get a break Thursday. A third system could track through parts of Central Texas with perhaps another 1” of rain on Friday of next week. We’ll have to watch each of these days carefully, but the breaks between systems will help.

TROPICS TRACKER

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.

-All quiet.

-The next named storms will be Oscar and Patty.

The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.

-Vicente developed off the coast of Guatemala and will shift along the southern Mexico Coast in the days to come

-Another disturbance has a 90% chance of development in the next 2 days, 90% in the next 5.

-The next named storm in the Pacific will be Willa.

Track the tropics here:

http://cbsaustin.com/weather/hurricane-tracker

http://bit.ly/cbsaustinwxhurricane

AIR QUALITY FORECAST

Saturday’s Air Quality: CODE GREEN - GOOD. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229

EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES

NOAA continued an El Nino Watch on September 13th with the chance for El Niño at 50-55% during fall, and 65-70% during winter 2018-19.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

For Central Texas, El Nino winters are typically colder and wetter than normal. Stay tuned!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/how-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-affect-winter-jet-stream-and-us-climate

The shorter-term Climate Prediction Center outlook for Oct 25-29 is below normal for temps and above normal for precip. For Oct 27-Nov 2, it’s below normal for temps and above normal for precip. For Nov 3 – Nov 16, it’s near normal for temps and near normal for precip.

FIRE FORECAST

Wildfire danger remains low thanks to our recent rain!

Burn bans have been lifted for all counties in the CBS Austin area.

Statewide Burn Bans: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png

Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd

DROUGHT UPDATE

Drought? What drought? Our heavy rain has finally ended all areas of drought and abnormally dry conditions across the CBS Austin area. The next Drought Monitor will be released Thursday, October 25th and we should remain drought-free. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX\

ALLERGY REPORT

NO count on Friday due to equipment maintenance. Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma & Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen and here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.

LAKE LEVELS

These have been changing so rapidly, that the link is the best place to see where things stand. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport

UV INDEX

The UV Index for Saturday will be 3 (mod). Unprotected skin could burn in 45 minutes. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1

STORM TRACKER FORECAST

SAT: 68 | Cloudy, scattered showers, especially AM | Rain Chance: 50% | Winds: N 10-15 | Morning Low: 60

SUN: 70 | Mostly cloudy, but some sun could grace us with its presence! | Winds: NE 5-10 | Morning Low: 57

MON: 60 | Clouds, showers and potential moderate/heavy rain passing through | Rain Chance: 70% | Winds: N/E 5 | Morning Low: 51

TUE: 66 | Mostly cloudy, a couple stray showers | Rain Chance: 20% | Winds: NE 5 | Morning Low: 53

WED: 65 | Cloudy, rain likely and possibly thunderstorms | Rain Chance: 50% | Winds: N 5-10 | Morning Low: 55

THU: 70 | Partly sunny isolated showers | Rain Chance: 20% | Winds: NNW 5-10 | Morning Low: 56

FRI: 72 | Mostly cloudy, scattered showers with some heavy downpours | Rain Chance: 40% | Winds: S 5 | Morning Low: 57

Get weather updates by searching hashtag #CBSAustinWX on social media. And download our free CBS Austin Weather App so you can track storms from your phone or tablet.

Share your weather pics with us! Use hashtag #CBSAustinWX on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram and email weather@cbsaustin.com

Take Care and I’ll see you weeknights at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10pm!

-Chikage

CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler

On the Web: http://cbsaustin.com/weather

Watch LIVE: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinlive

CBS Austin Weather App and Text Alerts: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinapps

Weather Cameras: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinwxcams

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ChikageWeather

Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather

Instagram: https://instagram.com/chikageweather

YouTube: http://bit.ly/ChikageWeatherYouTube

Pinterest: http://www.pinterest.com/chikageweather

Bio: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinchikage

Email: chikage@cbsaustin.com

SUNRISE
07:36:15 am
SUNSET
06:54:36 pm

Today's Record Temperatures

Record High92
F
Record Low36
F