Friday, October 19th, 2018
As of Friday evening, Lake Travis had reached the 5th highest level on record, just shy of the 4th highest. Major flooding was occurring, but the rate of rise for the lake had slowed to a crawl. Thursday, the lake went up 1 foot every 6 hours. Friday, it took 18 hours to rise 1 foot. Friday afternoon through evening, the lake only rose 0.1 feet over a 6 hour period. While conditions seem to be stabilizing with fewer open gates at dam ops upstream from Lake Travis, thus decreasing inflows to the lake. IF we avoid heavy rain, the lake is expected to remain in a range of 704 to 706 feet per the LCRA. IF heavy rain develops upstream from or over Lake Travis, then additional floodgates may be opened, though that potential has dropped. IF additional floodgates are opened, then areas downstream of Lake Travis from Lake Austin to Ladybird Lake to the Colorado River at Bastrop, Smithville and La Grange toward the Gulf could see a domino effect due to higher flows = higher flood risk.
Top 5 Crests:
(1) 710.44’ December 25th, 1991
(2) 707.38’ May 18th, 1957
(3) 705.11’ July 7th, 1997
(4) 704.68’ February 10th, 1992
(5) *At least 704.29 – October 2018
100% Full = 681 feet. Top of spillway is 714 feet, something that has never happened.
Most areas saw less than 1” of rain on Friday, and it didn’t come all at once. As even that moderate rain risk shoves north and east with a disturbance moving away from us, we’ll downtrend to just “scattered showers” and areas of drizzle through Saturday until a cold front arrives from north to south during the day. That front won’t cool us down, but it will shove the copious moisture that’s been plaguing us all week to the south and FINALLY, bring us a dry day on Sunday.
Bottom Line: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM through the weekend with generally light rain and low rain totals that should not worsen the flood situation dramatically.
Remember, Turn Around Don’t Drown.
Road Closures: http://bit.ly/atxfloods
River Flooding: http://bit.ly/riverfloodatx
LCRA Flood Ops: http://bit.ly/lcra_lakelevels
Rain Reports: http://bit.ly/hydromet
After a break in the rain on Sunday (and perhaps even some sunshine – perfectly timed for F1), we’ll see a system quickly close in on Central Texas Monday. Right now, I’m expecting up to 1” of rain Monday, then a break Tuesday. Another system (possibly with some tropical influence from the Pacific) could bring up to 1” of rain Wednesday. Then we get a break Thursday. A third system could track through parts of Central Texas with perhaps another 1” of rain on Friday of next week. We’ll have to watch each of these days carefully, but the breaks between systems will help.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-The next named storms will be Oscar and Patty.
The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-Vicente developed off the coast of Guatemala and will shift along the southern Mexico Coast in the days to come
-Another disturbance has a 90% chance of development in the next 2 days, 90% in the next 5.
-The next named storm in the Pacific will be Willa.
Track the tropics here:
AIR QUALITY FORECAST
Saturday’s Air Quality: CODE GREEN - GOOD. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229
EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES
NOAA continued an El Nino Watch on September 13th with the chance for El Niño at 50-55% during fall, and 65-70% during winter 2018-19.
For Central Texas, El Nino winters are typically colder and wetter than normal. Stay tuned!
The shorter-term Climate Prediction Center outlook for Oct 25-29 is below normal for temps and above normal for precip. For Oct 27-Nov 2, it’s below normal for temps and above normal for precip. For Nov 3 – Nov 16, it’s near normal for temps and near normal for precip.
Wildfire danger remains low thanks to our recent rain!
Burn bans have been lifted for all counties in the CBS Austin area.
Statewide Burn Bans: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd
Drought? What drought? Our heavy rain has finally ended all areas of drought and abnormally dry conditions across the CBS Austin area. The next Drought Monitor will be released Thursday, October 25th and we should remain drought-free. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX\
NO count on Friday due to equipment maintenance. Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma & Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen and here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.
These have been changing so rapidly, that the link is the best place to see where things stand. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
The UV Index for Saturday will be 3 (mod). Unprotected skin could burn in 45 minutes. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
STORM TRACKER FORECAST
SAT: 68 | Cloudy, scattered showers, especially AM | Rain Chance: 50% | Winds: N 10-15 | Morning Low: 60
SUN: 70 | Mostly cloudy, but some sun could grace us with its presence! | Winds: NE 5-10 | Morning Low: 57
MON: 60 | Clouds, showers and potential moderate/heavy rain passing through | Rain Chance: 70% | Winds: N/E 5 | Morning Low: 51
TUE: 66 | Mostly cloudy, a couple stray showers | Rain Chance: 20% | Winds: NE 5 | Morning Low: 53
WED: 65 | Cloudy, rain likely and possibly thunderstorms | Rain Chance: 50% | Winds: N 5-10 | Morning Low: 55
THU: 70 | Partly sunny isolated showers | Rain Chance: 20% | Winds: NNW 5-10 | Morning Low: 56
FRI: 72 | Mostly cloudy, scattered showers with some heavy downpours | Rain Chance: 40% | Winds: S 5 | Morning Low: 57
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Take Care and I’ll see you weeknights at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10pm!
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
On the Web: http://cbsaustin.com/weather
Watch LIVE: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinlive
CBS Austin Weather App and Text Alerts: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinapps
Weather Cameras: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinwxcams
Today's Record Temperatures