Monday, August 13th, 2018
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP
After some beneficial rain the last 3-4 days across much of Central Texas, we’re going back into that old familiar pattern: hot and dry.
I’m forecasting at least a week’s worth of dry weather. At the same time, temps will flirt with 100 and probably get there later this week.
Worth noting – we are in the middle of the climatological peak for hottest temps in Austin. Our highest average high temp is 98 from August 2nd through 16th. It drops to 97 on the 17th. The extra clouds and rain the last few days kept our highs below normal, but Monday, with no rain at Camp Mabry, the high reached 99°! Yes, the relief was brief, but welcome.
I’m forecasting upper 90s the next few days with triple digits returning Friday through early next week. That’s when computer models start disagreeing. One shows a possible cold front for Tuesday the 21st that might bring some rain, clouds and cooler temps. Another keeps our hot, humid, and rain-free weather going. We’ll keep you updated!
For the Record: We’ve seen 93 days of 90+ heat to date at Camp Mabry. Average from 1897-present is 110 per year, but the 30-year average from 1988-2017 is much higher: 122. The most in a year? 164 in 2011. The lowest was 98 back in 1997.
We’ve seen 34 days of triple digit heat to date at Camp Mabry. The 30-year average for triple digit temps is 25 in a year. The record is 90 days of 100s in 2011.
AIR QUALITY FORECAST
Tuesday’s Air Quality: CODE YELLOW – MODERATE – due to African dust. The dust will keep our air quality moderate on Wednesday as well before improving to good on Thursday and the dust dissipates. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229
August 9th, The National Hurricane Center released its new forecast for the rest of the season, lowering its forecast. The revised forecast is for 9-13 named storms (average is 12), 4-7 hurricanes (average is 6) and 0-2 major hurricanes (average is 3).
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-One disturbance in the middle of the North Atlantic has a 10% chance of development in 2 days, 20% in the next 5.
-The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Ernesto.
The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-Hector weakened to a tropical storm and is expected to weaken further
-One disturbance has a 20% chance of development in the next 2 days, 50% in the next 5.
-Another disturbance has a 30% chance of development in the next 2 days, 30% in the next 5.
-The next named storm in the Pacific will be called Lane
EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES
NOAA continued an El Nino Watch on August 9th with the chance for El Niño increasing to 60% during fall, and 70% during winter 2018-19.
For Central Texas, El Nino winters are typically colder and wetter than normal. Stay tuned!
The shorter-term Climate Prediction Center outlook for August 19-23 is near normal for temps and near normal for precip. For Aug 21-27, it’s above normal for temps and near normal precip. For Aug 25-Sept. 7, the outlook is for near normal temps and near normal precip.
Wildfire danger has been somewhat mitigated with our recent rain, but over the next week, we return to a hot and dry pattern.
All of the CBS Austin area except for Mason County remains under burn bans.
Statewide Burn Bans: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd
Our recent rain will hopefully show some improvement in the drought department. Last week’s Drought Monitor showed quite a bit of expansion of the EXTREME DROUGHT in the Hill Country with areas of SEVERE DROUGHT now edging into parts of Hays and Williamson Counties. MODERATE DROUGHT covers most of the rest of the I-35 corridor, including Austin. The next Drought Monitor will be release Thursday, August 16th. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX\
Mold 3326 – high. Trace Pigweed and Fall Elm. Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma & Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen and here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.
Lake Travis was at 64% full with Lake Buchanan at 79%. Monday’s combined lake level was 71%. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
The UV Index for Tuesday will be 10 (very high). Unprotected skin can burn in 15 minutes. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
STORM TRACKER FORECAST
TUE: 98 | Partly cloudy | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 77
WED: 99 | Partly cloudy | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 77
THU: 99 | Mostly sunny | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 77
FRI: 100 | Mostly sunny | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 77
SAT: 100 | Mostly sunny | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 76
SUN: 100 | Mostly sunny | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 78
MON: 100 | Mostly sunny | Winds: S 5 | Morning Low: 77
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Take Care and I’ll see you weeknights at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10pm!
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
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Today's Record Temperatures