COOL SNAP CONTINUES TUESDAY{/strong}

Monday was our first below-average day of March! We hit 69 (3 degrees cooler than average) for a high, and 50 for a low (2 degrees cooler than average).

Tuesday will continue this theme with upper 40s in the morning and mid to upper 60s in the afternoon. A weak disturbance may bring more clouds to our area along with a very low (10%) chance of sprinkles or a spotty shower. Most areas will be dry.

Wednesday, we'll see our winds turn out of the south again, ushering in seasonable 70s for the day.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY{/strong}

Thursday, we'll be very warm and humid with a shot at low 80s ahead of a potent cold front. We'll have a chance of showers and a few storms as early as Thursday morning, with a possibility of strong to severe storms later Thursday through Friday morning along and ahead of the cold front. Hail and high winds will be the main threats. This front will be packing a tremendous amount of cold air.

WINTER'S NOT OVER YET{/strong}

By Friday daybreak, we'll be in the 40s, and likely won't make it out of the 50s for highs. While we're not looking at record cold, it will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than average for much of our area with any rain showers diminishing for the afternoon and evening. These temps will continue through early next week, and there's potential for "top 10" coldest temps for March 18th, 19th, and 20th.

DID SOMEBODY SAY SNOW?{/strong}

This weekend, it's likely we'll be in a mostly cloudy and cold pattern. We might even see lows fall into the upper 30s in Austin, a little colder in the Hill Country. The air upstairs (higher in the atmosphere) even looks cold enough to support...SNOW! The question then becomes whether we'll see cold enough air at the surface plus enough moisture falling to actually get any of that snow that falls aloft to reach the surface. For now, the chances are extremely low, but not zero. Several computer models are suggesting some light accumulation possible in the Hill Country. It's too early for much more than just watching the trends. I'm keeping highs in the 50s and lows around 39 for Austin. Meanwhile - places like Mason and Fredericksburg might have highs in the 40s and lows in the mid 30s. Even if it's in the mid 30s at the surface, if enough precip comes down through the column of air overhead, it can sometimes survive the trip - even as it melts on its way down. For that reason, I'm not ruling out a rain/snow mix in the Hill Country Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. It's a bit more of a stretch, but not impossible even in the Austin metro. It would be more of a conversation piece than a traffic issue - but in March, any snow, regardless of whether it melts when it hits the ground or not, is a big deal in Central Texas. Stay tuned! It's also a good idea to be prepared to bring in or cover any tender vegetation that might have issues with frost or a light freeze. It's possible the northwest suburbs and Hill Country might see some spotty low to mid 30s Saturday, Sunday, and/or Monday mornings, depending on how things play out.

ALLERGY REPORT - MONDAY, MARCH 12th{/strong}

Trees:

Cedar 56 - Moderate{/li}
Ash 2 - Low{/li}
Oak 164 - High{/li}
Mulberry 5 - Low{/li}
Hackberry 3 - Low{/li}
Elm 2 - Low{/li}
Other 4 - Low{/li}{/ul}
Grass: 2 - Low
Weeds: 0
Mold: 861 - Low
Pollen and mold Counts are provided by Sheila M. Amar, M.D., and Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown. Pollen is measured in grains/cubic meter. Mold is measured in spores/cubic meter.
Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays. Get the daily allergy report from Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens
DROUGHT UPDATE{/strong}
The Drought Monitor issued on March 9th showed no change week-to-week. The Extreme Drought remained in parts of Llano and Burnet Counties and the Exceptional Drought (worst on the scale) remained in parts of Gillespie County near Fredericksburg, along with Southwest Hays and Southern Blanco Counties. Spots that had previously been "drought-free" in Eastern Williamson and Eastern Travis Counties have now been added to the "Abnormally Dry" category. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX
LAKE LEVELS{/strong}
As of Monday, Lake Travis was 46% full (29.6 feet below average) and Lake Buchanan 59% full (9. below average). Combined storage was 51%. The surface water temp on Lake Travis at Mansfield Dam was 66 degrees. Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan are both at their lowest since 2015. Check the lake levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
BURN BANS CONTINUE FOR 85 of 254 COUNTIES IN TEXAS, INCLUDING MASON AND LLANO COUNTY IN THE CBS AUSTIN AREA{/strong}
Current wildfires: https://public.tfswildfires.com/{/li}
Statewide Burn Bans: https://tfsweb.tamu.edu/BurnBans/{/li}
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd{/li}{/ul}
UV INDEX{/strong}
Tuesday's forecast UV Index: 6 - HIGH https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
AIR QUALITY FORECAST: MODERATE TUESDAY, GOOD WEDNESDAY, MODERATE THURSDAY{/strong}
Air Quality Index Explained: https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/{/li}
AQ Forecast: https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/monops/forecast_today.html{/li}
Saharan Air Layer (Dust Tracker): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg{/li}
Smoke Tracker: https://fire.airnow.gov/{/li}{/ul}
EXTENDED OUTLOOK{/strong}
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for March 19th through March 23rd favors COOLER temps and WETTER precipitation conditions. For March 21st through March 27th, it is COOLER for temps and AVERAGE for precipitation. For March 25th through April 7th, the outlook is for AVERAGE temps and AVERAGE precipitation. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
LA NINA IS OFFICIALLY OVER!{/strong}
On March 9th, the Climate Prediction Center released its latest climate update saying La Nina has come to an end. We'll be in ENSO-Neutral conditions through spring and into summer. Typically in neutral patterns, there is less predictability and more variability, which could mean more frequent storms and temperature swings.
Eventually, an El Nino pattern is expected to develop later in the year. During hurricane season, an El Nino typically means fewer hurricanes. Here in Central Texas, we tend to see more active weather with El Ninos that favor a storm track to bring us more bouts of cold and moisture during the winter months. It's not a guarantee, but it could help our drought conditions to see an El Nino pattern take over.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso{/li}
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml{/li}
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina{/li}{/ul}
ROAD CLOSURES{/strong}
3 closures were reported on atxfloods.com. Some are long-term closures for roads in need of repair. https://www.atxfloods.com/closures
WEATHER BLOG{/strong}
Check out weather-related stories on the Weather Blog: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/weather-blog
STORM TRACKER FORECAST{/strong}
TUESDAY: 67 | Mostly cloudy, sprinkles possible | 10% rain chance | Wind: NE to E 10 | Morning Low: 46{/li}
WEDNESDAY: 75 | Partly cloudy | Wind: SE 5-15 | Morning Low: 49{/li}
THURSDAY: 81 | Humid. Mostly cloudy with showers/storms possible early and again late, some could be strong to severe, mainly late | 70% rain chance| Wind: S 15-20 | Morning Low: 64{/li}
ST. PATRICK'S DAY FRIDAY: 58 | Morning showers and storms possible, then mostly cloudy, colder and blustery | 60% rain chance early | Wind: N 20-25 | Morning Low: 53{/li}
SATURDAY: 56 | Mostly cloudy, slim shower chance | 10% shower chance | Wind: N 10-15 | Morning Low: 39{/li}
SUNDAY: 54 | Mostly cloudy, slim shower chance | 10% shower chance | Wind: NE 10-15 | Morning Low: 39{/li}
MONDAY: 53 | Mostly cloudy, scattered showers | 30% shower chance | Wind: NE 10-15 Morning Low: 39{/li}{/ul}
Share your weather pics with us! Use hashtag #CBSAustinWX on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram, and email weather@cbsaustin.com. On our website, go to https://cbsaustin.com/chimein to submit your pictures and videos.
-Chikage
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
On the Web: https://cbsaustin.com/weather
Weather Maps: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/maps
Weather Blog: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/weather-blog
Watch LIVE: https://cbsaustin.com/watch
CBS Austin Weather App: https://cbsaustin.com/station/mobile-apps
Weather Cameras: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/cameras
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ChikageWeather
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather
Instagram: https://instagram.com/chikageweather
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/chikageweather
Pinterest: https://www.pinterest.com/chikageweather
Bio: https://cbsaustin.com/station/people/chikage-windler
Email: chikage@cbsaustin.com