CHILLY, CLOUDY TUESDAY{/strong}

A weak, quick-moving disturbance in North Texas today will add more clouds to our sky along with a spotty shower or two. The extra clouds will help lock in the chill for one more day with most staying locked into the 60s. Some though, depending on the low rain chance, could be stuck in the upper 50s through this afternoon.

Winds will be lighter today, and they’ll be slowly shifting to a southeasterly direction during the overnight hours. Cue our next rapid warm-up!

HEAT + HUMIDITY BUILDING AHEAD OF SEVERE STORM CHANCE{/strong}

Whatever jacket or long sleeves you need today, you won’t need by Wednesday and Thursday. South/southeasterly winds usher in warmer and more humid air. Highs are in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday, low 80s by Thursday.

This is all ahead of our next storm system which will arrive Thursday night. With a strong cold front moving through, it’s likely that storms will develop in/around Central Texas by late afternoon and evening with additional storms possible into the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning.

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has all of Central Texas under a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms. That means a handful of the widespread storms could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. Please make sure you are paying close attention to the forecast and have multiple ways of receiving severe weather information.

MUCH, MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND{/strong}

Mother Nature sure has a way with timing. Astronomical winter continues through next Monday, March 20th... And it will feel every bit like winter behind this arctic cold front this weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will all be very similar with lows in the low 40s and highs in the low 50s. That’s 20 degrees below average, and we’ll even have a wind chill factor Friday morning between 25-35 degrees. The heavy winter coat will need to come back out of the closet... but this type of cold shouldn’t lead to any problems with the spring garden unless your plants are extremely sensitive to chilly temperatures.

HEARING RUMORS OF SNOW?{/strong}

...Don’t pay any attention to it, yet. Yes, it will be cold through at least Monday of next week. Yes, we’ll have another disturbance moving in atop that cold air. No, it is not possible this early in the game to have a good idea of how these two variables will combine.

Our current forecast keeps temperatures above freezing through the coldest point of this cold snap on Monday, though temperatures will be as cold as the mid-30s. It’s not out of the question that a cold rain developing on Monday could feature some conversational flurries, but the odds of that happening are low and (for now) confined to the Hill Country/parts of northwest Texas.

Sorry, kiddos. I don’t think you’ll get lucky with an extended spring break early next week, but this is a dynamic forecast that will likely change significantly between now and the weekend. Check back for updates.

LAKE LEVELS{/strong}

Lake Travis is steady with an elevation of 639.4 feet (46% full, 29 feet below average)

Lake Buchanan is steady with an elevation of 1001.8 feet (59% full, 9 feet below average)