THE TEMPERATURE YO-YO IS HERE{/strong}

The threat of storms for our area has more-or-less fizzled as our latest cold front drops through overnight. Some spotty showers may be possible into Friday morning, but the big focus will be on temperatures. After soaring to 86 on Thursday, we'll likely not make it out of the 60s on Friday! Technically, our high will be just after midnight, but during Friday's daytime hours, we'll see most of the day in the 60s. We'll see a drop in humidity as well as breezy north/northeasterly winds that will make it noticeably cooler, but not cold. Anddon't get used to it!

MORE TEMP SWINGS THIS WEEKEND{/strong}

We warm right back up again on Saturday with humidity surging in as well. We could climb all the way into the upper 80s. It wouldn't shock me if we hit 90 on Saturday! Another cold front arrives Sunday on a dry note. Though I think the front may push through in the morning, so with the earlier timing of the front, temps might not quite make it to 80 for highs. I'm forecasting 78 now, which is still well above our average high of 72. The coolest air will filter in to start next week.

PLEASANT FOR MOST OF SPRING BREAK WEEK{/strong}

Finally, by Monday and Tuesday of next week, the core of the modified cool air behind the cold front will reach us. Yet again, it won't be cold, but it will be cooler, with highs in the mid 60s Monday and upper 60s Tuesday. The coolest lows arrive Tuesday morning in the low to mid 40s - so jackets might come in handy by then. Bonus points for lower humidity, which will make it feel great outside!

I'm still watching the potential for another storm system to bring rain and t-storms possibly late night on the 16th or St. Patrick's Day. Computer models are not in agreement just yet. Another thing to keep an eye on: potentially another much colder surge of air for Saturday the 18th, which some computer models are suggesting a brief visit to some 30s for lows. That's just a little too far out for confidence.

ALLERGY REPORT - THURSDAY, MARCH 9th

Trees:

Ash 2 - Low{/li}
Oak 156 - High{/li}
Mulberry 6 - Low{/li}
Hackberry 156 - High{/li}
Grass: 2 - Low{/li}{/ul}
Weeds: 0
Mold: 1,161 - Low
Cedar appeared on the allergy slide for the first time this season on November 29th. Cedar season can last into March, but is typically worst in late December to early January. For the record, the highest cedar count in recent history is 31,587 recorded January 4th, 2021. This season, the highest so far is 20,452 on January 3rd, with the second-highest report of 14,417 on January 4th, and third-highest report of 7,173 on January 11th.
Pollen and mold Counts are provided by Sheila M. Amar, M.D., and Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown. Pollen is measured in grains/cubic meter. Mold is measured in spores/cubic meter.
Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays. Get the daily allergy report from Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens
DROUGHT UPDATE{/strong}
The Drought Monitor issued on March 9th showed no change week-to-week. The Extreme Drought remained in parts of Llano and Burnet Counties and the Exceptional Drought (worst on the scale) remained in parts of Gillespie County near Fredericksburg, along with Southwest Hays and Southern Blanco Counties. Spots that had previously been "drought-free" in Eastern Williamson and Eastern Travis Counties have now been added to the "Abnormally Dry" category. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX
LAKE LEVELS{/strong}
As of Thursday, Lake Travis was 46% full (29.5 feet below average) and Lake Buchanan 59% full (9.75 feet below average). Combined storage was 52%. The surface water temp on Lake Travis at Mansfield Dam was 67 degrees. Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan are both at their lowest since 2015. Check the lake levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
BURN BANS CONTINUE FOR 85 of 254 COUNTIES IN TEXAS, INCLUDING MASON AND LLANO COUNTY IN THE CBS AUSTIN AREA{/strong}
Current wildfires: https://public.tfswildfires.com/{/li}
Statewide Burn Bans: https://tfsweb.tamu.edu/BurnBans/{/li}
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd{/li}{/ul}
UV INDEX{/strong}
Friday's forecast UV Index: 5 - MODERATE https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
AIR QUALITY FORECAST: MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY, GOOD SUNDAY{/strong}
Air Quality Index Explained: https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/{/li}
AQ Forecast: https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/monops/forecast_today.html{/li}
Saharan Air Layer (Dust Tracker): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg{/li}
Smoke Tracker: https://fire.airnow.gov/{/li}{/ul}
EXTENDED OUTLOOK{/strong}
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for March 15th through March 19th favors AVERAGE temps and WETTER precipitation conditions. For March 17th through March 23rd, it is COOLER for temps and WETTER for precipitation. For March 18th through March 31st, the outlook is for AVERAGE temps and WETTER precipitation. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
LA NINA IS OFFICIALLY OVER!{/strong}
On March 9th, the Climate Prediction Center released its latest climate update saying La Nina has come to an end. We'll be in ENSO-Neutral conditions through spring and into summer. Typically in neutral patterns, there is less predictability and more variability, which could mean more frequent storms and temperature swings.
Eventually, an El Nino pattern is expected to develop later in the year. During hurricane season, an El Nino typically means fewer hurricanes. Here in Central Texas, we tend to see more active weather with El Ninos that favor a storm track to bring us more bouts of cold and moisture during the winter months. It's not a guarantee, but it could help our drought conditions to see an El Nino pattern take over.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso{/li}
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml{/li}
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina{/li}{/ul}
ROAD CLOSURES{/strong}
3 closures were reported on atxfloods.com. Some are long-term closures for roads in need of repair. https://www.atxfloods.com/closures
WEATHER BLOG{/strong}
Check out weather-related stories on the Weather Blog: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/weather-blog
STORM TRACKER FORECAST{/strong}
FRIDAY: 68 | Spotty morning showers, mostly cloudy, cooler, and turning less humid | 20% rain chance early | Wind: N to NE 5-15 | Morning Low: 58{/li}
SATURDAY: 88 | Early fog/clouds to sun | Wind: S 10-20 | Morning Low: 61{/li}
*DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME BEGINS AT 2 AM* SPRING FORWARD SUNDAY: 78 | Mostly sunny, another front pushes through on a dry note | Wind: W to NW 10-20| Morning Low: 65{/li}
MONDAY: 65 | Mostly cloudy | Wind: N to NE 10-15 | Morning Low: 52{/li}
TUESDAY: 69 | Mostly sunny | Wind: NE to SE 5-10 | Morning Low: 44{/li}
WEDNESDAY: 78 | Mostly sunny | Wind: S 10-20 | Morning Low: 50{/li}
THURSDAY: 79 | Mostly cloudy by day, shower/isolated storm chance at night | 20% rain chance at night | Wind: S 10-20 | Morning Low: 61{/li}{/ul}
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-Chikage
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
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