90-DEGREE TEMPS RETURN{/strong}

It's been a nice break! We've had 7 straight days of highs of 89 or cooler, but our luck may run out for the rest of the week. I'm forecasting "seasonably hot" weather in the 90-92 degree range through Saturday. Our average high is 91. Fun fact: we've only had 15 days of 90 or hotter through May 30th. By this date last year, we had already hit 90 or hotter 30 times, including one day of triple-digit heat!

RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND{/strong}

Storm chances fade Wednesday through Friday, but make a return this weekend. The Weather Prediction Center has the I-35 Corridor points west through the Hill Country in a low risk for flooding Saturday. While I think some Hill Country locations might see isolated flooding concerns, I think the better rain chances for the Austin area will be on Sunday. We could see scattered showers and storms again early next week. Rain totals up up to 1" from Saturday (mainly late) through next Tuesday are possible. At this point, I'm not anticipating any significant severe weather.

90 & 100-DEGREE TRACKER{/strong}

We've had 15 days of 90-degree heat so far this year. Our hottest day so far: 94 on April 15th and again May 5th. The record for temps 90+ is 164, set in 2011 and tied in 2022.

Our average first 100-degree day is July 4th. I'm not yet forecasting any triple-digit temps, but the record earliest is May 4th, 1984, and the record latest is October 2nd, 1938. The average (1991-2020) is 29 days. The record is 90 days in 2011. There are 12 years on record with no 100s, most recently 1987.

ROAD CLOSURES{/strong}

2 closures were reported on atxfloods.com as of Tuesday afternoon. https://www.atxfloods.com/closures

ALLERGY REPORT - TUESDAY, MAY 30th{/strong}

Trees: 0{/li}
Grass: 14 - Moderate{/li}
Weeds: 0{/li}
Mold: 43,235 - High{/li}{/ul}
Pollen and mold Counts are provided by Sheila M. Amar, M.D., and Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown. Pollen is measured in grains/cubic meter. Mold is measured in spores/cubic meter.
Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays. Get the daily allergy report from Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens
DROUGHT UPDATE{/strong}
The Drought Monitor issued on May 23rd showed less drought improvement than I had hoped, considering our recent rain. Only a subtle improvement was noted in the area of Severe Drought in parts of Llano and Mason Counties. Otherwise, the Hill Country remains in drought conditions, including a narrow swath of southwest Gillespie County in Exceptional Drought. The good news for I-35 points east is that we are drought-free for a second straight week. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX
LAKE LEVELS{/strong}
As of Tuesday, Lake Travis was 46% full (30.18 feet below average) and Lake Buchanan 63% full (10.49 feet below average). Combined storage was 52%. The surface water temp on Lake Travis at Mansfield Dam was 81 degrees. Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan are both at their lowest since 2015. Check the lake levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
BURN BANS CONTINUE FOR 59 of 254 COUNTIES IN TEXAS, NONE IN THE CBS AUSTIN AREA{/strong}
Current wildfires: https://public.tfswildfires.com/{/li}
Statewide Burn Bans: https://tfsweb.tamu.edu/BurnBans/{/li}
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd{/li}{/ul}
UV INDEX{/strong}
Wednesday's forecast UV Index: 11 - Extreme. https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
AIR QUALITY FORECAST: MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY{/strong}
Ozone Action Days in 2023: 1 - May 18th (Air quality stayed in the moderate range, thankfully!)
A record 25 Ozone Action Days were declared in 2022. A total of 34 days last year were Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or worse, also a record.
Air Quality Index Explained: https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/{/li}
AQ Forecast: https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/monops/forecast_today.html{/li}
Saharan Air Layer (Dust Tracker): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg{/li}
Smoke Tracker: https://fire.airnow.gov/{/li}{/ul}
EXTENDED OUTLOOK{/strong}
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for June 5th through June 9th favors COOLER temps and WETTER precipitation conditions. For June 7th through June 13th, it is WARMER for temps and WETTER for precipitation. For June 10th through June 23rd, the outlook is for WARMER temps and AVERAGE precipitation. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
SUMMER OUTLOOK{/strong}
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for June through August for our area is for WARMER than average temps and near average precipitation.
EL NINO WATCH{/strong}
On May 11th, the Climate Prediction Center released that we will likely transition to El Nino in the next couple months with a 90% chance of El Nino lasting into winter. Typically in neutral patterns, there is less predictability and more variability, which could mean more frequent storms and temperature swings. During hurricane season, an El Nino typically means fewer hurricanes. Here in Central Texas, we tend to see more active weather with El Ninos that favor a storm track to bring us more bouts of cold and moisture during the winter months. It's not a guarantee, but it could help our drought conditions to see an El Nino pattern take over.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso{/li}
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml{/li}
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina{/li}{/ul}
NOAA RELEASES ITS 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST: NEAR AVERAGE{/strong}
May 24th, NOAA called for a near average hurricane season, forecasting 12 to 17 named storms (14 is the average), 5 to 9 hurricanes (7 is the average), and 1 to 4 major hurricanes (3 is the average).
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook
While the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be near average, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season is expected to be more active. NOAA is forecasting 14 to 20 named storms (average is 15), 7 to 11 hurricanes (average is 8), and 4 to 8 major hurricanes (average is 4). Averages are based on the 1991-2020 period.
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST{/strong}
The transition to an El Nino this summer plays a big role in how active this year's hurricane season could be. Colorado State University is forecasting 13 named storms (14 is the average), 6 hurricanes (7 is the average), and 2 major hurricanes (3 is the average).
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
TROPICS TRACKER{/strong}
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1st through November 30th. One storm back in January was retroactively designated as the first cyclone of the season. It was a subtropical storm, given the ID "AL012023." The next tropical depression to form will be "Tropical Depression Two," and if it becomes a tropical storm, it would be "Tropical Storm Arlene." The full list of storm names is here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
There is one area of interest in the Central Gulf of Mexico with a low chance of development. Regardless of development, it is not expected to affect Texas. The disturbance is likely to move eastward toward Florida.
WEATHER BLOG{/strong}
Check out weather-related stories on the Weather Blog: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/weather-blog
STORM TRACKER FORECAST{/strong}
WEDNESDAY: 91 | Patchy fog possible, then mostly sunny | Wind: S to SE 5-10 | Morning Low: 68{/li}
THURSDAY: 90 | Partly cloudy | Wind: S to SE 5-10 | Morning Low: 69{/li}
FRIDAY: 91 | Partly cloudy | Wind: S to SE 5-15 | Morning Low: 70{/li}
SATURDAY: 92 | Partly cloudy, isolated storms possible late | 20% rain chance | Wind: S to SE 5-10| Morning Low: 70{/li}
SUNDAY: 89 | Partly cloudy, scattered storms | 40% rain chance | Wind: SW to E 5-10 | Morning Low: 70{/li}
MONDAY: 90 | Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms possible | 30% rain chance | Wind: NW to E 5-10 | Morning Low: 68{/li}
TUESDAY: 90 | Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms possible | 30% rain chance | Wind: SW to SE 5-10 | Morning Low: 68{/li}{/ul}
Share your weather pics with us! Use hashtag #CBSAustinWX on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram, and email weather@cbsaustin.com. On our website, go to https://cbsaustin.com/chimein to submit your pictures and videos.
-Chikage
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
On the Web: https://cbsaustin.com/weather{/li}
Weather Maps: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/maps{/li}{/ul}
Weather Blog: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/weather-blog{/li}
Watch LIVE: https://cbsaustin.com/watch{/li}
CBS Austin Weather App: https://cbsaustin.com/station/mobile-apps{/li}
Weather Cameras: https://cbsaustin.com/weather/cameras{/li}
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ChikageWeather{/li}
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather{/li}
Instagram: https://instagram.com/chikageweather{/li}
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/chikageweather{/li}
Pinterest: https://www.pinterest.com/chikageweather{/li}
Bio: https://cbsaustin.com/station/people/chikage-windler{/li}
Email: chikage@cbsaustin.com{/li}{/ul}