Thursday, July 27th, 2017
A HEAT ADVISORY was extended until 8pm Friday for Milam County points north. Although high temps in Austin will actually be a hotter than in Milam County the next few days, the National Weather Service has not yet included Austin in an advisory. Either way – plan for highs in the 100-107 range for the next 6 days with the hottest on Friday and Saturday. Heat index values could approach 105-110. Our next cold front (it’s a weak “back door” cold front) will shift our winds and bring a slight cool-down starting Sunday, but I’m still keeping us at 98-102 even behind the front from Sunday through next week.
Please remember to stay safe in the heat. Heat safety tips: http://bit.ly/NWSHeatSafety
STREAK NOW STANDS AT 10 DAYS
Thursday, we hit 100+ for the 10th consecutive day! Though this sounds like a lot, it actually ties for only the 23rd longest streak of 100s. The record of 27 straight belongs to 2011, and thankfully, we will not get there. I have upper 90s for the highs starting Wednesday which would end our streak at 14 days, in a tie for 10th longest.
It also was our 24th day of triple digit heat this year. For the record, Camp Mabry, averages 13 triple digit highs and the most ever was 90 set in 2011.
Meanwhile, our average temp for July keeps 2017 to date as the 3rd hottest on record and our average temps from Jan 1 to date puts 2017 as the warmest year on record so far!
Will we set records? We could! My forecast: 105 Friday (record is 105 set in 1923), 107 Saturday (record is 105 set in 1925) and 102 Sunday (just shy of the record 104 set in 1957). IF we hit 107 on Saturday, that will be the hottest temp since August 14th, 2013 when we also hit 107!
SEARCHING FOR RAIN
A “back door” cold front continues to look likely on Sunday – as the front pushes from northeast to southwest – backing in winds out of the east/northeast and bringing isolated shower/storm chances and a slight cool-down. Rain totals look pretty meager – maybe a few hundredths of an inch unless a storm fires. There’s an outside chance a shower or storm could event sneak in late Saturday night – but the best chances will be Sunday (20%). I’m keeping a 10% chance on Monday before drying things out.
Beyond that – it’s a tough call. Computer models agree we will see a wetter trend with better rain chances, but they disagree on when and how much. For now, I’d keep in mind the chance of 1”+ rain possibly as early of Wednesday of next week and more likely around Friday of next week.
You can always download our free CBS Austin WX Radar App and search hashtag #cbsaustinwx for updates. Plus you can track any showers on our interactive radar here: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinwxradar
COUNTING DOWN TO THE GREAT AMERICAN SOLAR ECLIPSE
#Eclipse2017 is August 21st and will be visible for the entire contiguous US! The total eclipse (moon completely covering the sun) will be visible in 14 states. Sadly, Texas is not one of them, but we’ll see a great partial solar eclipse peaking here in Austin at 1:10pm. The eclipse will begin at 11:41am, peak at 1:10pm and end at 2:39pm. It will last 2 hours and 58 minutes! (By the way, in areas where the total eclipse is visible from Salem, Oregon southeast to Charleston, South Carolina, it will temporarily turn so dark outside in the middle of the day that you’ll be able to see stars!) Here in ATX – peak eclipse will be 65% coverage. The last time a total solar eclipse was visible in the contiguous US was 1979. The last time one was visible on the mainland US was 1918!! More info: https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/
The new Drought Monitor brings us bad news. For the first time since October 2015, parts of our area are now in a SEVERE DROUGHT! Parts of Bastrop, Caldwell and Hays Counties have worsened from Moderate to Severe Drought. Meanwhile, parts of Travis County are now officially in a Moderate Drought. We need rain, something that August could bring. Burn Bans are now in effect for all of our counties except Mason and Milam.
Here’s the Burn Ban Map: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
Check out the drought map here: http://bit.ly/TXDroughtMonitor
Thursday’s count: mold went down to 2562 (moderate), with pigweed at 19 (low). Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen
Lake Travis dropped from 89% to 88% full with Lake Buchanan at 93%. Thursday’s combined lake level was 91%. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
The UV Index for Friday will be 11 of 11 – extreme! Burn time for unprotected skin is around 10 minutes. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1 Sun safety tips: http://theshadeproject.org/sun-safety-education/
AIR QUALITY FORECAST
Air quality will be good Friday. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229
In the Atlantic, one system could develop in the next 5 days – but only a 30% chance at this point. In the Pacific, Hillary and Irwin are weakening and another system has a slim chance of developing in the next 5 days. Jova will be the next named storm in the Pacific. The Atlantic Hurricane Season continues until November 30th. NOAA is predicting a slightly above average hurricane season with 11-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. More info: http://bit.ly/cbsaustinwxhurricane http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
STORM TRACKER FORECAST
FRI: 105 | Sunny | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 77
SAT: 107 | Sunny | Winds: SW/E 5 | Morning Low: 78
SUN: 102 | Partly cloudy, isolated showers/storms | Rain Chance: 20% | Winds: E/SE 5 | Morning Low: 80
MON: 100 | Partly cloudy, slim chance showers/storms | Rain Chance: 10% | Winds: SE/S 5 | Morning Low: 77
TUES: 100 | Mostly sunny | Winds: S/E 5 | Morning Low: 75
WED: 99 | Mostly sunny | Winds: E 5 | Morning Low: 75
THU: 98 | Sunny | Winds: N/E 5 | Morning Low: 76
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Take Care and I’ll see you weeknights at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10pm!
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
On the Web: http://cbsaustin.com/weather
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Today's Record Temperatures