Monday, June 18th, 2018
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
We’ve now seen 4 straight days of measurable rain at Camp Mabry! That said, rain totals haven’t been a lot to write home to mom about just yet. That could change on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the tropical surge of moisture meanders to our south and east, it will sweep waves of light to moderate rain and occasional heavy downpours into Central Texas. The Hill Country is likely to see the least rain with most areas getting less than 1” and some up to 2”. I-35 including Austin could see another 1-3” with some isolated 4” totals in Eastern Travis and Hays Counties not out of the question. For Bastrop, Caldwell, Lee, Milam and Fayette Counties, 3-5” will be possible, and it’s possible there might be an isolated 6” total in Southeastern Fayette County.
Despite the amount of additional rain on the way, we’re very dry and this rain will be spread out over another 2 days. That may be enough to stave off flooding. Right now, flash flood guidance is really high. For Travis County, it would take 3.1” in one hour, 4.0” in 3 hours, or 5.2” in 6 hours to cause flooding, per the National Weather Service.
Rain turns more widely scattered by Thursday and Friday looks mainly dry.
The heaviest rain totals are likely to be along the coast – with some areas between Corpus and Galveston getting 7-10”+.
DRY WEEKEND AHEAD
Wondering about the weekend already? It’s looking dry for all your outdoor plans. That includes the Fit Foodie Festival and 5K taking place at Mueller Lake Park Saturday morning. Team CBS Austin will be running! Hope to see you there! Race forecast: 8am temp of 77 with mostly sunny skies and south winds 10 mph.
With dry weather this weekend, we’ll see the heat return. Plan on highs in the mid to possibly upper 90s with heat index values up to 100 or so.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-The tropical disturbance on the Texas Coast has a 10% chance of development – very unlikely
-The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Beryl.
The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.
-Carlotta weakened to a depression and will eventually dissipate in Mexico.
May 24th, the National Hurricane Center released its official forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They’re forecasting 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 1-4 major hurricanes. Average is 12, 6 and 3. This is expected to be a near normal or slightly above normal hurricane season. Colorado State University released its 2018 Hurricane Forecast on May 31st. The forecast: 13 named storms (14 if you include Subtropical Storm Alberto which developed prior to the forecast issuance). 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. They also forecast a 29% chance of a major hurricane (Cat 3, 4 or 5) making landfall between the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville along the Gulf Coast. 30% is the average for the last century.
TURNING DOWN THE HEAT
Through the first 18 days of June, 2018 is the 3rd hottest, behind 2008 and 2011. We’re going to get some heat relief the next couple days thanks to extra clouds and rain associated with tropical moisture. We may only see 80s for highs on Tuesday.
For the Record: We’ve seen 40 days of 90+ heat to date at Camp Mabry. Average from 1897-present is 110 per year, but the 30-year average from 1988-2017 is much higher: 122. The most in a year? 164 in 2011. The lowest was 98 back in 1997.
We’ve seen 3 days of triple digit heat to date at Camp Mabry. The 30-year average for triple digit temps is 25 in a year. The record is 90 days of 100s in 2011.
EL NINO WATCH ISSUED
NOAA issued an El Nino Watch on June 14th with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19.
For Central Texas, El Nino winters are typically colder and wetter than normal. Stay tuned!
The shorter-term Climate Prediction Center outlook for June 21-28 is near normal for temps and above normal for precip. For June 23-29, it’s near normal for temps and above normal precip. For June 30-July 13, the outlook is for near normal temps and below normal precip.
SUMMER SOLSTICE ON THURSDAY
Astronomical summer begins Thursday, June 21st at 5:07 AM here in Central Texas. The summer solstice is when the sun reaches its highest and northernmost points in the sky. It’s also the longest day of the year, with the most hours and minutes of sunlight.
SUMMER FORECAST FROM BOB ROSE AT THE LCRA
May 9th, LCRA Meteorologist Bob Rose issued his summer weather outlook at the annual LCRA Meteorologist Day. His forecast:
*A moderately hot summer ahead (somewhat similar to 2016 and 2017.
*Temps averaging 1-2 degrees warmer than normal from late spring through summer.
*25-35 days of triple digit temps
*Rain averaging near normal, weather trending wetter in the fall
*Pacific appears to be trending toward El Nino by September or October
Travis, Williamson, Hays, Caldwell and Blanco Counties are under a burn ban at this time.
Statewide Burn Bans: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
Fire Danger Forecast: http://twc.tamu.edu/tfd
The Drought Monitor showed no change with the exception of Southern Hays County and Southwest Caldwell County which have deteriorated to Moderate Drought. In the Western Hill Country, Moderate Drought persists, with most areas in Central Texas in the Abnormally Dry stage. The next Drought Monitor will be released Thursday, June 21st. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX\
Mold 2880 – moderate. Grass 16 – low. Trace Privet, Pecan, Poplar, Willow, Ragweed. Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma & Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen and here: http://cbsaustin.com/weather/cbs-austin-allergens. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.
Lake Travis was at 73% full with Lake Buchanan at 87%. Monday’s combined lake level was 79%. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
The UV Index for Tuesday will be 10 (very high). Unprotected skin can burn in 15 minutes. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1
AIR QUALITY FORECAST
Air quality is expected to be GOOD on Tuesday. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229
STORM TRACKER FORECAST
TUE: 88 | Showers and storms likely | Rain Chance: 80% | Winds: E 5-10 | Morning Low: 74
WED: 90 | Mostly cloudy, scattered showers and storms | Rain Chance: 60% | Winds SE 5-10 | Morning Low: 74
THU: 92 | Partly cloudy, scattered showers and an isolated storm possible | Rain Chance: 30% | Winds SE 5-10 | Morning Low: 74
FRI: 95 | Partly cloudy, a stray shower | Rain Chance: 10% | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 75
SAT: 97 | Mostly sunny | Winds: SE 10-15 | Morning Low: 76
SUN: 96 | Partly cloudy | Winds: SE 10-15 | Morning Low: 77
MON: 95 | Partly cloudy, a stray shower | Rain Chance: 10% | Winds: S 5-15 | Morning Low: 76
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Take Care and I’ll see you weeknights at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10pm!
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
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Today's Record Temperatures