Tuesday, January 16th, 2018
Afternoon update from Chikage WIndler -
Temps have dropped area-wide into the 20s and we will not thaw out until midday Wednesday. The wintry precip continues moving out and skies will clear tonight. That will pave the way for a widespread hard freeze with the coldest temps since 2011 expected.
HARD FREEZE WARNING for Milam County (but all of us are seeing a hard freeze) - remember the 4 p's People, Pets, Plants and Pipes!
The Winter Storm Watch has been cancelled for all but Fayette County where it remains until 9pm. A Winter Weather Advisory is hoisted for Travis, Blanco, Hays, Caldwell, Bastrop and Lee Counties until 9pm. Main concern will be for icy patches.
Our winter weather story shifts to brutal cold for the overnight - teens for temps and some single digit wind chills possible.
I'm working on that part of your forecast and will see you on CBS Austin News tonight at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10! Stay safe and warm!
WINTER STORM WARNING TUESDAY
A CBS Austin Weather Alert is in effect for Tuesday. We have a Winter Storm Warning for the ENTIRE CBS Austin viewing area beginning at midnight ending at 6pm Tuesday.
Many schools and offices are closed in anticipation of a moderate to high impact ice event ending as light snow. Rain Monday night will turn to freezing rain pre-dawn, then transition to sleet and snow.
WHAT: Freezing rain, sleet and snow
WHEN: For Austin: NOW to 3pm (earlier Hill Country and later south and east of Austin)
IMPACT: Hazardous travel with ICY bridges, overpasses and side streets expected on untreated surfaces, slippery sidewalks and steps
*Glaze up to 1/10” ice. (We saw issues on January 2nd on bridges with less than 0.01” of ice!)
*Trace to ½” sleet (ice pellets)
*Trace to 1” snow
*Total liquid amounts: between 0.1” and 0.2” if it were all rain – more south and east.
TEMPS: Remaining below freezing from 4am Tuesday morning through midday Wednesday
WIND: N 10-20 making for bitterly cold wind chills in the teens and 20s
WIND CHILLS: Possibly some single digit to teens wind chills Tuesday night
BETTER NEWS FOR THURSDAY
After a sunny day on Wednesday with temps thawing out and highs in the upper 30s, we’ll drop back below freezing Thursday morning. The good news – it looks more and more likely that the round of potential ice will stay to our south. If we’re dry, we’ll have no issues. I’ve dropped the Weather Alert for Thursday and dropped the precip chance down to just 10%.
UNSEASONABLY WARM 3M HALF MARATHON WEEKEND
What a turn-around we’ll see! Temps could soar into the mid 70s on Saturday ahead of our next cold front. Unfortunately for runners, that front looks like it will push through on Sunday morning – perhaps during the race. I have a 40% chance of showers as well as warm temps for the start of the race: 57 degrees at 7:30am. Highs later will push into the upper 60s even behind the front. Skies should clear in the afternoon. Winds will also pick up. They’ll be fairly light initially, then pick up out of the west-northwest 10-20 mph behind the front. Good luck runners! Team CBS Austin will see you there!
LA NINA STILL IN EFFECT
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for January 21-25 is near normal for temps and below normal for precip. For January 23rd through 29th, it’s near normal temps and below normal precip. For the 27th of Jan through the 9th of Feb, it’s warmer with near normal precip.
We’re officially in a La Nina pattern and there’s an 85-90% chance it will continue through the end of winter. While that usually means a warmer and drier winter in Central Texas, we’ve certainly seen some hiccups! Two snows in one month are unusual in any year, never mind in a la nina year! A La Nina develops when the sea surface temps in the Pacific Ocean along the Equator are colder than normal for a prolonged period of time. The colder those temps, the stronger the La Nina. The impact of this pattern for Central Texas is that the jet stream remains well north of Texas – keeping the main storm track well to our north. Worth noting – even with cold snaps (and snow and ice!) our overall trend for the entire season should end up on the warmer and drier side of things. Last winter was a La Nina winter and we only had 5 freezes and no ice/snow events in our area. This season, we’ve had 9 freezes already – and I’m forecasting another 3 in the next week. Normal is 19. More: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
The drought monitor released Thursday showed worsening of the areas of Moderate Drought in the Hill Country – especially over Gillespie County. Abnormally Dry conditions across much of Central Texas. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX\
ALLERGY UPDATE – CEDAR IS HERE!
Monday’s pollen count: mold: 803 (moderate) and cedar: 874 (high). Get the latest allergy report from Allergy & Asthma & Associates here: https://twitter.com/atxpollen
Lake Travis was 82% full with Lake Buchanan at 89%. Tuesday’s combined lake level was 85%. Check the levels here: http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport
The UV Index for Tuesday will be 1 - low. Check the UV Index here: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-1 Sun safety tips: http://theshadeproject.org/sun-safety-education/
AIR QUALITY FORECAST
Our air quality is expected to be good for Tuesday. Check the Air Quality anytime here: https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=229
STORM TRACKER FORECAST
TUE: 30 | WEATHER ALERT | WINTER STORM WARNING | Rain transitions to freezing rain pre-dawn, then sleet, then ending as snow in the afternoon | Precip Chance: 100% | Winds: N 10-20 | Morning Low: 27
WED: 39 | Bitterly cold in the morning. Sunny, thawing out by noon | Winds: N/NE 5 | Morning Low: 20
THU: 45 | Mostly cloudy, less likely for precip in the morning, only a 10% chance now but it could be freezing rain if it happens | Precip Chance: 10% | Winds: E/S 5 | Morning Low: 26
FRI: 57 | Mostly cloudy, spotty drizzle or showers possible | Rain Chance: 10% | Winds: S 5-10 | Morning Low: 37
SAT: 75 | Partly cloudy and warm | Winds: S 5-15 | Morning Low: 48
SUN: 68 | Early showers and clouds, windy and clearing skies in the afternoon | Rain Chance: 40% AM | Winds: SW/W 10-20 | Morning Low: 57
MON: 65 | Sunny | Winds: N/E 5 | Morning Low: 39
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Take Care and I’ll see you weeknights at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10pm!
CBS Austin Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler
On the Web: http://cbsaustin.com/weather
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Today's Record Temperatures